Recent data from EHI and ECDB’s “E-Commerce Market Germany 2024” report indicates a potential turnaround in Germany’s online retail sector. After experiencing a decline in 2022, the industry appears to be stabilizing, with projections suggesting a return to growth in the near future.
Key Findings:
- Market Performance:
- 2023: Net sales of top 1000 webshops declined by 0.2% (not inflation-adjusted)
- 2022: 2.8% decline
- 2024 Forecast: Nominal growth expected
- Historical Context:
- 15 consecutive years of growth until 2022
- Significant expansion during 2020-2021 (pandemic years)
- 2022: “Post-COVID rebound” resulted in 2.8% revenue decrease
- Current State:
- 2023: 0.2% decline (€164 million reduction)
- Total market value: €77.5 billion
Industry Outlook: EHI researcher Lars Hofacker states, “Online commerce is returning to the development curve that would have been expected without the pandemic.” The firm projects a modest nominal growth of 1.1% for the top 1000 online stores in 2024.
Pre-pandemic Performance: From 2008 to 2019, the top 1000 online stores experienced an average annual growth rate of 10.7%.
Market Leaders:
- Amazon: Solidifying its lead
- Otto
- Zalando
- MediaMarkt
- Ikea: Notable growth in online furniture market
Emerging Players:
- H&M
- Lidl
- About You
- Shop Apotheke: Demonstrating rapid growth
Marketplace Dynamics: EHI and ECDB’s analysis of gross merchandise value reveals:
- Amazon: €51.4 billion
- eBay: €8.9 billion
- Otto: €6.5 billion
This data suggests that while the German e-commerce market faced challenges in recent years, it is showing resilience and adaptability. As the sector navigates post-pandemic normalization, businesses should remain attentive to evolving consumer behaviors and prepare for potential opportunities in this recovering market.
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